The global retail landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with social commerce emerging as a powerful, community-driven engine for growth, yet its trajectory diverges sharply across major economies, most notably between China and India. Forecasts place the global social commerce market at an estimated $1.6 trillion in 2025, with projections for sustained annual growth exceeding 30% through 2030. This meteoric rise is largely propelled by the East, where cultural predispositions, advanced digital infrastructure, and innovative business models have cultivated a fertile ground for social selling. However, for every success story, there are markets struggling to replicate this phenomenon, with India standing out as a prime example of untapped potential grappling with fundamental systemic challenges.
China’s ascent to become the undisputed leader in social commerce is nothing short of spectacular. By 2025, the nation is estimated to command nearly $900 billion of this market, representing a staggering 30-40% of its total e-commerce revenue. This dominance is not accidental but a culmination of several intertwined factors. At its core, Chinese social commerce thrives on three primary models: livestream selling, influencer-led discovery, and group buying. Livestreaming, in particular, has become a national pastime, with nearly half of China’s internet users—over 500 million people—regularly tuning in to watch influencers and celebrities hawk products in real-time. Platforms like Douyin (the Chinese counterpart to TikTok) and Kuaishou have integrated seamless shopping experiences directly into their video feeds, transforming entertainment into instant retail. Group buying, epitomized by giants like Pinduoduo, which boasts a market capitalization exceeding $170 billion, leverages collective purchasing power to offer steep discounts, fostering a sense of community and shared value among consumers. This ecosystem is further bolstered by the pervasive influence of super-apps like WeChat, which, with over 1.3 billion monthly active users, integrates social interaction, payments, and commerce into a single, frictionless experience. The combination of high smartphone penetration, a digitally native population, and a culturally cohesive society that values communal engagement has created an unparalleled environment for social commerce to flourish.
In stark contrast, India, despite being touted as the next frontier for digital retail, has found its social commerce ambitions largely unfulfilled. While Indian boardrooms have buzzed with projections of a "China-sized gold rush," the reality has been a slower, more arduous climb. As of 2025, social commerce constitutes a mere 1-2% of India’s total e-commerce revenue, a figure significantly dwarfed by Indonesia’s 20-25% and China’s commanding lead. This disparity highlights fundamental structural and behavioral differences that impede the model’s scalability in the subcontinent. While there have been pockets of success, such as fashion retailer Myntra reporting 10% of its revenue from social commerce driven by 3.5 million creators, and consumer goods giant HUL expanding its influencer network to 12,000, these remain outliers within a broader narrative of struggle. Numerous dedicated social commerce platforms like Simsim, Bulbul, and GlowRoad have faced significant hurdles, with livestreaming, a cornerstone of Chinese success, particularly failing to gain widespread traction due to issues ranging from inconsistent internet quality (India ranks 131 globally in internet speeds) to high data costs in non-urban areas and an initial industry focus on pre-recorded content.
Perhaps the most telling indicator of India’s challenges is the trajectory of Meesho, often cited as one of the few prominent social commerce success stories. Founded in 2015, the platform achieved a gross merchandise value (GMV) exceeding $6 billion in FY25, primarily driven by millions of resellers, many of whom are women leveraging personal networks. However, unlike China’s Pinduoduo, also founded in 2015 and profitable by its seventh year with multi-billion dollar net incomes from 2023, Meesho reported a net loss of ₹3,942 crore in FY25. Critically, Meesho has significantly pivoted away from its pure social commerce roots, evolving into a more traditional e-commerce marketplace. This strategic shift underscores the inherent difficulties in scaling a pure social commerce model within the Indian context, pointing to deeper, systemic barriers.
One of the most significant impediments to social commerce in India is a pervasive trust deficit. According to the World Values Survey, only about 20% of people in India believe "most people can be trusted," a stark contrast to China’s approximately 65%. This societal characteristic profoundly impacts online transactions. In a low-trust environment, consumers are hesitant to commit to purchases based solely on online recommendations or virtual interactions. This manifests in a strong preference for Cash on Delivery (COD), particularly in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, where nearly 65% of e-commerce purchases are still made with cash. This reliance on COD creates significant working capital issues for social commerce platforms, which often rely on upfront payments or streamlined digital transactions to manage inventory and logistics efficiently. The "touch and feel" aspect before payment remains a deeply ingrained consumer behavior, hindering the rapid, impulse-driven purchasing characteristic of successful social commerce.
Beyond trust, the model economics and pricing structures in India present formidable challenges. The Indian retail market is characterized by extreme price sensitivity, a high concentration of unorganized sellers, and a need for extensive customization due to its diverse linguistic and cultural landscape. RedSeer estimates that regional brands and unbranded products will continue to drive over 70% of total retail spending, contributing to a highly fragmented supply chain. This fragmentation makes it difficult for social commerce platforms to standardize offerings, control quality, and achieve economies of scale. Furthermore, the average order size in India is significantly lower—2-3 times less than in China. This small average order value (AOV) leaves very little room for platforms to earn meaningful commissions after accounting for high return rates, promotional discounts, and other operational costs, thereby undermining the financial viability of the model.
Infrastructure gaps exacerbate these economic challenges. While India has made strides in digital payments with platforms like UPI, the last-mile logistics infrastructure, especially in non-urban areas, remains underdeveloped compared to China. China’s parcel density, for instance, is on average eight times higher than India’s, as noted by the Journal of Applied Electronic Consumer Research. This higher density translates into more efficient delivery routes, lower per-parcel costs, and faster delivery times, making logistics economically viable even for low-margin items. In India, the dispersed population, poor road connectivity in many regions, and the sheer volume of unique addresses make logistics more expensive and complex, eroding any potential profitability from social commerce sales. The prevalence of COD further complicates logistics, requiring cash collection and reconciliation, adding layers of cost and operational overhead.
Finally, the regulatory environment and issues of misinformation pose a significant hurdle to building credibility. China has implemented stringent regulations, requiring content creators, particularly in sensitive areas like health and medicine, to provide proof of degrees, licenses, and certified training. Platforms like Douyin and Weibo are mandated to verify these credentials, ensuring the accuracy and trustworthiness of information disseminated. This proactive approach helps build consumer confidence in influencer recommendations. In contrast, India’s regulatory framework for influencers is comparatively lax, often requiring disclosure only for technical advice, not for general awareness messaging. This lack of rigorous oversight can lead to the proliferation of unverified claims and misinformation, eroding consumer trust in social selling channels over time. Without a robust system to ensure authenticity and accountability, the perceived value of influencer-led commerce struggles to take root.
Looking ahead, while social commerce in India is expected to grow, it will likely do so from a very small base and at a pace that is organic rather than explosive. It is improbable that India will reach the same level of maturity and scale as China within the foreseeable future. Achieving such parity would necessitate a fundamental transformation across multiple fronts: fostering a high-trust societal ecosystem, establishing truly frictionless payment systems universally, overcoming market heterogeneity with offerings tailored to Indian nuances, and significantly upgrading logistics and digital infrastructure. These are monumental tasks that will require sustained effort, policy innovation, and private sector investment over at least a decade. India’s journey in social commerce will ultimately be a unique one, shaped by its distinct socio-economic realities, rather than a mere replication of the Chinese model.
